CBO memo on GOP health care plan: minimal actual effect by 2019.

Source: http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/107xx/doc10705/hr3962amendmentBoehner.pdf

By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people without health insurance would be reduced by about 3 million relative to current law, leaving about 52 million nonelderly residents uninsured. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage in 2019 would be about 83 percent, roughly in line with the current share. CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the amendment’s insurance coverage provisions would increase deficits by $8 billion over the 2010–2019 period.

Net effect: little substantive change to the number of uninsured or budget deficit.

[…] [T]he [GOP plan] would lower average insurance premiums in 2016 by zero to 3 percent compared with amounts under current law, according to CBO’s estimates. […] [S]ome provisions of the legislation would tend to decrease the premiums paid by all insurance enrollees, while other provisions would tend to increase the premiums paid by less healthy enrollees or would tend to increase the premiums paid by enrollees in some states relative to enrollees in other states. As a result, some individuals and families within each market would see reductions in premiums that would be larger or smaller than the estimated average reductions, and some people would see increases.

Net effect: little substantive change to today’s practice of making unhealthy people pay more, and little actual reduction in any premium costs overall.